The v0.18 method, restated
Branch-weighted exit run-rate
Terminal value at end of year 3 on recurring run-rate, four branches, discounted to today. Same multiples as v0.18 (stop 4×, low 7×, base 10×, high 12×) unless you move the base multiple. Listing-path run-rates are working figures. A DFY rail applies fluxnet_v0.19’s 35% exclusion haircut after the discount. A Q4 harbor lifts listing-path run-rates slightly and does not unbreak the haircut. NetCo adds the 8% cover effect plus CSAI’s fundamental share of NetCo equity and W, carried separately.
Levers
Defaults are the live observation: 0 named firms, listings already 70% of the commercial story, DFY as wrapper numeraire, Q4 harbor assumed for the scenario, no NetCo.
DFY posture
Live is wrapper. Rail is the closed-network conversion. None is v0.18 as written.
Present value
$11.2M
Discount 30% · 3 years
Look-through
$11.2M
Equals PV · NetCo off
Defensible band
$6.8M–$17.8M
7× at 40% · 13× at 25%
Ask still
$16.0M
Does not move until NetCo exists · v0.18 / entity v0.19
Recommendation on these levers
Listings primary; USD bond; DFY only as a wrapper unit
- The live product is already a listed freeze with a bonded integrity layer and open readers. /invest sells that sentence.
- Publisher exclusion is cleaner when the SKU is a methodology licence at a USD list, not an admission fee and not a DFY rail.
- On the v0.18 method the listing path prints about $11.6M present value — inside the same 11–28M band, with less gate fragility than bonded-USD at zero named firms, and without the exclusion haircut bonded-DFY takes.
- A Q4 2026 harbor, if it lands, is upside on the listing path (tokenized wrappers) and is not a reason to convert the rail.
Refuse: P5, a DFY fee rail, and treating lab keys as the gate.
Year-3 SKU mix (base case, $k)
Interpolated between the v0.18 bonded mix and a constructed listing mix. Recurring $4.7M.
- Listing / methodology$1.2M
- Read$1.5M
- Desk licence$545.0k
- Freeze licence$324.0k
- Royalty$644.0k
- History$272.0k
- Channel$84.0k
- Other$92.0k
Branch contributions to expected TV
Weights move with the gate. Zero named firms loads stop and low. Listing share reduces that fragility. A DFY rail loads stop further (bond volatility).
| Branch | Run-rate | Multiple | Weight | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stop | $444.0k | 4× | 40% | $1.8M |
| Low | $2.4M | 7× | 33% | $16.8M |
| Base | $5.1M | 10× | 20% | $51.4M |
| High | $9.7M | 12× | 7% | $116.6M |
What the method will not count
- A token market that prices W at 13× fundamental — the implied FDV of the NetCo sale in P3 alone. Carried at zero until a sale clears (entity_structure_v0.19 §3.2; fluxnet_v0.19 §9).
- A DFY mark on CSAI’s issuer-connected 86.8%. Same rule. A harbor does not make the mark a publisher line.
- MutantDeFi / FloatNet current feed revenue. valuation_v0.18 §2 said quantify it before the first meeting. Still unquantified here.
- Advisor suites and x402 statistics — the platform thesis of the v0.17 SAFE. They do not sit in the publisher and must not be used to defend this number.
- P5, the protocol token, and bonded-DFY as a fee rail. Both break the lines and are worth less than doing nothing on this method (fluxnet_v0.19 §4.6).